Every quarter, my colleague Amy Gurchensky surveys HRO vendors for the NelsonHall HR Outsourcing Confidence Index (HROCI), which is then available for our clients and the participating service providers. In normal times, the HROCI does not change drastically from quarter to quarter; it more shows changes in trends over time. In uncertain times, however, it is a timely way to see changes in market perceptions even before disruptions occur in contract values, volumes, and revenues.
It is of some comfort that the HROCI is in a steady state of small changes from quarter to quarter. That is not a sign of upcoming exuberant growth, but it is a predictor that we will continue to see solid continuous HRO growth throughout 2012.
The most recent HROCI shows a vendor confidence level of 153, where 100 represents unchanged confidence and higher scores indicate increased confidence. While 153 is down a bit from 164 in 1Q 2011, it is in line with 3Q and 4Q 2011 at 151 and 147 respectively. Vendor confidence is often based on how current business is going, along with the pipeline. In HRO, growth from existing clients is just as important as new business. Ever since deals got smaller in scale and scope, there has been increased focus on retaining and growing existing accounts, and we see positive vendor confidence here as well.
Looking at some of the HR lines of service, payroll is once again in the leading position for growth, followed by RPO, multi-process HRO (MPHRO), benefit administration, and learning. MPHRO is expected to perform well in 2012, primarily driven by the need of organizations to standardize HR services across regions and geographies. Vendors such as ADP and NorthgateArinso that previously offered primarily payroll and employee administration services have been very active in acquiring or partnering to extend capabilities to a wider range of platform-based MPHRO functions. In addition, Logica is becoming increasingly successful in this space in Europe.
There is a slight tempering of growth expectations that can be seen in the data, although pipelines still seem solid. I think this is the same kind of hedge-your-bets thinking that is in the larger economy and what we are seeing from HRO buyers. Everyone still has a healthy sense of caution in case things suddenly go sideways.
Luckily, more and more HRO buyers and clients are willing to move ahead and get on with doing business, even if a bit cautiously. Other buyers still suffer from frozen decision-making and unwillingness to make long-term investments. Buyers with clear direction for what they want to achieve through HRO are the most likely to be deal ready – as along as prices are right and there is not too much upfront investment. The earlier service providers can assess readiness, the faster they will be able to fill pipelines with well-qualified prospects.
Linda Merritt, HRO Research Analyst, NelsonHall
Interested in reading the latest HRO news from NelsonHall? Subscribe to our newsletter by emailing amy.gurchensky@nelson-hall.com with “HRO Insight” as the subject.
In the USA Today last week, there was a feature with President Obama giving a talk to the business community, where he gave recognition to them for keeping jobs in the U.S.
The President said the economy has changed, and the transformation has been painful for many American workers who used to work in factories where they thought they would retire from, but those factories relocated overseas where the cost of labor has been cheaper. The President recognized that we live in a global economy and other countries want to develop their companies internationally and will therefore want to employ workers all over the world. But right now, the U.S. is in a unique moment in time where it has the opportunity to bring jobs back as the U.S. has people available and ready to work now. The President wants companies to invest in America, and he is set to introduce a tax proposal that would reward companies who bring jobs back to America and eliminate tax breaks for companies that are moving jobs overseas. The President has set a goal of doubling the export of goods and services by 2014.
So the big question is, will this scheme work and what does it mean to offshoring HRO? As one data point, let’s look at the percentage of HRO contract value by location according to NelsonHall’s latest quarterly HRO Confidence Index released in December 2011:
72% Onshore
16% Nearshore
12% Offshore (the 12% is consistent with April 2010 when tracking of this data point began).
Although some American companies have brought back previously offshored jobs, I believe it will come down to a combination of cost and service. First, pending what the actual tax breaks are that the President will be able to provide, CFOs will evaluate the outsourcing cost savings vs. the tax benefits of bringing jobs back. If HRO service provider jobs are brought back, vendor clients are not going to want to pay more. If the tax breaks don’t cover the labor cost savings, will vendors be willing to eat the extra cost? I don’t think so. Much will also depend on the current level of client satisfaction with outsourced services.
Depending on job type, it is easier said than done. As an example, let’s take moving outsourced call center jobs back to the U.S. Part of the reason call centers are offshored are due to multi-lingual call center support, including for MNCs, that can be provided from HR service centers such as in Manila. Then there is offshoring of non-client facing jobs, often referred to as back-office administration. For example, sourcing of jobs can be done when U.S. offices are closed overnight and candidates can be delivered next morning.
In sum, once the specific tax breaks are known, CFOs will commence cost savings analysis, followed by vendor and client discussions on where and how to best provide HRO services.
Gary Bragar, HRO Research Director, NelsonHall
Interested in reading the latest HRO news from NelsonHall? Subscribe to our newsletter by emailing amy.gurchensky@nelson-hall.com with “HRO Insight” as the subject.
HRO is very much at the beneficence and the mercy of the economy. With slow expectations for recovery continuing into 2012, HRO vendors are moderating their expectations. As the threat of a double-dip recession slowly lessens in the U.S., concerns about the next presidential election increases and worries over the European economy remain high. With a mixed bag of economic indicators, the NelsonHall Confidence Index has lowered to 147 from a peak of 170 in Q1 2010, with unchanged expectations representing 100. Although the Confidence Index is slightly down, 147 is still positive for growth. It is the expectations for high growth over the next 12 months that have changed the most, dropping to 33% from 54% of surveyed vendors. Moderate growth expectations increased to 43%, up from 32% in the prior year quarter.
The anticipation of continued growth is based on the experience of 2011 contract growth and expansion in renewals and existing contracts, where service providers have seen the addition of geographies and new processes. At the same time, there has been no change in the perennial barriers of frozen decision making and unrealistic buyer expectations for pricing and savings.
A sign of the times is that payroll services (4.1 out of 5.0) replaced RPO as the strongest individual HR outsourcing service line in Q3 2011. Multi-process HR outsourcing (MPHRO) activity strengthened to 3.9. This is great to see given that some organizations have been scared of adopting large-scale MPHRO services due to fears of the associated timescales and investments. Vendor MPHRO capability is once again maturing beyond employee administration and payroll services. Organizations are being asked to add in greater support for a wider range of HR functions; prompted by the strengthening need to achieve maximum cost savings in G&A functions as the economic situation threatens to worsen.
Expectations for RPO 2012 service line growth dropped to second place with a still very strong 4.0, with payroll remaining in the lead at 4.2. MPHRO comes at 4.0, showing continued strength for the latest generation of standardized processes starting out with initially smaller scale and scope. Look for buyer interest in multi-country and regional standardized and platform services to continue for payroll, RPO and MPHRO. North America and the U.K. will remain the target for modest growth in benefits administration at 3.5. Good news, despite a small drop in pipeline activity for learning (3.4), all service lines are healthy and are showing a reasonable amount of activity.
Will there be continued economic and political uncertainty? Sure. The good news is that HRO deals can and are being done when the basics of demonstrating both proven business value and cost justified efficiency are clear. So let’s get real and get on with the business of life and business – and have a Happy New Year!
Linda Merritt, Research Analyst, HRO, NelsonHall
Interested in reading the latest HRO news from NelsonHall? Subscribe to our newsletter by emailing amy.gurchensky@nelson-hall.com with “HRO Insight” as the subject.
The economic signals for the second half of 2011 remain mixed. Looking at the macro markets combined with global debt situations and unemployment rates, it looks like we are on the edge again. The long struggle to reaching agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling rattled nerves around the world.
Alternately, if we look at the NelsonHall HRO Confidence Index for Q2 2011, we see that service provider’s confidence level is 168, near the all time high of 170. Supplier expectations for 2011 for most industry sectors have improved with banking remaining the strongest followed by high-tech and telecoms, with the state and local government sector also up. Expectations are a bit lower for automotive, professional services, and transportation. Geographic growth expectations continue to be positive in emerging markets and have strengthened in the mature markets like the U.S. and some areas of Europe.
HRO vendors see what is happening in the larger economy, they know there is a chance of a double-dip recession or at least several more sideways quarters. At the same time, strength in new sales and expanded scope with existing clients along with still strong pipelines provides them with a more optimistic view. Let’s hope they are right!
ADP echoed this divergent view on its FY 2011 earnings call. It is well aware of the current economic conditions, including a still possible downgrade in the U.S. credit rating. ADP’s FY2012 forecast calls for continued growth based on its strong performance in FY2011, with Employer Services (ES) up 8% to $6.9bn, and a better-than-ever pipeline. It is also benefiting from recent acquisitions and new service innovations that have broadened and refreshed its service lines, especially adding more beyond payroll options in Europe. While payroll continues to be the largest service line for ADP at 66% of ES revenues, 33% is now from beyond payroll services including full HR BPO. In the pipeline, it is now an almost even split: 52% payroll, 48% beyond payroll.
As seen during the recession, HRO can be hit hard and fast in a full-fledged downturn. So, how can a HRO provider like ADP defy the larger economic outlook now? ADP was willing to take a small hit to operating margins to hire and train several hundred sales and service people ahead of the upturn. It was able to affordably acquire added capabilities to round out service lines and invest in new services that have been successful right out of the box, including Workforce Now and Run, which currently has over 120k clients in the small market on its cloud platform using self-service and Smartphone access. At the same time, ADP retains focus on client satisfaction and retention to stabilize recurring revenues.
In a recovery, even a weak one like we are experiencing, a well-prepared HRO vendor can beat the odds. Is your HRO provider one that is beating the odds?
Our recently published Q2 2011 HRO Confidence Index indicates that 50% of HRO suppliers, which includes payroll, RPO, learning, benefits, and MPHRO vendors, are much more confident in the HR Outsourcing business over the next twelve months compared to the previous twelve month period. Thirty-five percent are slightly more confident and 15% are as confident. The driving factors are two-fold. The top reason is new contract activity, first reported as the main reason in Q3 2010, and the other reason is increased scope of existing contracts.
In the past, my colleague Linda Merritt and I have written about new contract awards. For this blog, I wanted to focus on the importance of contract renewals, including increases in scope expansions as they are closely following new contract activity as the reason for this high confidence in HRO!
A few examples of recent contract renewals and scope expansions include the following:
Last week, Genpact was awarded a 7 year MPHRO contact by Nissan to include payroll, recruiting, training, and benefits administration. Genpact had been providing HR services to Nissan group companies and affiliates. It has also been providing services outside of HR that included F&A, procurement, collections, customer service, and analytics. As part of the contract, Genpact acquired Nissan’s HR shared service center in Yokohama, Japan, which handles HR functions for 54,000+ employees globally. The center, renamed Genpact Japan Service Co., Ltd., will serve Nissan, its affiliates, and other Genpact clients.
In June, NorthgateArinso was awarded a 7 year MPHRO renewal and scope expansion by Fifth Third Bank that I wrote about in my blog on the 23rd.
In June, Pinstripe was awarded two RPO contract extensions and scope expansions by Johns Manville and Rayonier. For Rayonier, the scope was expanded from professional hires for one division to include all professional and hourly hiring for all divisions.
In April, Aon Hewitt was awarded a flexible benefits contract by Emap, a business-to-business media group in the U.K. Aon’s Risk Solutions business had already been providng services to Emap.
In addition to winning a total retirement outsourcing (TRO) renewal earlier this year with BP America, Fidelity Investments also won a 5 year contract renewal for TRO in North America by HP, adding 162,500 participants from EDS who were previously serviced by other providers.
I believe we will of course continue to see contract renwals, but within the next one to three years, we will see an even larger increase in scope expansions. Why? Although buyers are increasing their propensity to outsource, since the recession began in 2008 we’ve seen new HRO buyers treading more lightly to test the waters before diving more deeply. A common example I see is in recruiting, where a new contract may start out for a particular business unit or geography, but then expand based on client satisfaction and increased benefits to enterprise-wide RPO, similar to the Pinstripe example above. When these contracts come up for renewal and the clients are happy, having obtained the benefits they signed up for and maybe even had their expectations exceeded, then there’s a good chance these clients will be looking to increase whatever scope they can.
We’ll come back to additional findings and trends in our HRO Confidence Index in a future blog, but in the meantime , NelsonHall clients can view the full report at the NelsonHall website.
Gary Bragar, HR Outsourcing Research Director, NelsonHall
HRO is back in the swing of things as evidenced by the NelsonHall Q1 2011 HRO Confidence Index, which is based on a questionnaire completed by HRO service providers. While the full report is for clients and survey participants, we like to share tidbits for our HRO Insight blog readers.
The HRO Confidence Index hit a low of 115 in Q2 of 2009 as the full impact of the recession hit home. On the rise since, it peaked at 170 in Q4 2010. The Q1 2011 HRO confidence level is 164. Some of the ratings slightly declined since the last quarter but remain at very positive levels, indicating a settling in of vendor confidence with a dash of realism.
Renewals and increases in scale and scope are going very well with existing clients. New deals are being signed and there is some increase in total contract values as geographic coverage continues to expand. Multi-country coverage is in ~30% of contract activity and the average number of countries included is 11. Growth is even expected to increase for multi-process HRO and there are hints that multi-tower deals may return as buyer confidence increases.
Revenue growth expectations are still positive, although with moderation from perhaps a bit too much holiday cheer in Q4 2010. On a scale of 1-5, with 5 being a strong increase, overall HRO expectations for revenue growth slipped from 4.3 to 3.6. RPO which had shown the greatest return to revenue growth throughout 2010, dipped to 3.7 from its high of 4.2 last quarter. A slight decline was also experienced by geography. The U.S. and Asia Pacific are still seen as the greatest opportunities along with Canada and the U.K. as traditional hot spots. Not surprisingly, given the current turmoil, the largest scaling back for growth was in the Middle East which dropped from 3.7 to 3.1.
The HRO outlook is quite positive and yet hurdles will always present themselves and awards will often be hard won. Getting the final commitment made and dotted line signed is still an issue. Clients continue to push hard for low prices and cost reductions. Across all BPO, including HRO, expectations for immediate and overall cost savings can be unrealistic. HRO is challenged to refocus on the overall value to the business in addition to operational cost to support its pricing.
Clients are growing in sophistication and understanding of outsourcing options. Fewer buyers are trying for lift and shift deals and are starting to wean themselves off of wanting heavily customized technology set-ups. They are also cautious about vendors with only a single offshore delivery center. This should ease the way for HRO vendors with growing multi-shore delivery options and expect business to continue to increase for hybrid and platform HR technology systems.
It is time to settle in and get down to the business of business and ensure a good year for HRO.
What a difference a quarter, or two, or three, can make! NelsonHall’s just-released 4Q10 HR Outsourcing Confidence Index found that 54 percent of respondents are much more confident about the health and growth of the HR outsourcing industry over the next 12 months as compared to the previous 12 months. And this number is up from 41 percent in 3Q10, 33 percent in the second quarter of 2010, and 27 percent in 1Q10.
The primary drivers for this boosted confidence are increases in both new contract awards and in providers’ pipelines. The strongest pipeline is in RPO, followed by outsourced payroll (especially in the SMB market, as providers are offering better technology and services targeted specifically to this segment) and then outsourced learning services.
In terms of revenue growth, based on financial results for the period ending 3Q10, RPO led the pack, followed by payroll, learning, benefits administration and multi-process HRO (MPHRO) taking the next four rankings. It should come as no surprise that RPO took the top spot as contracts continue to be awarded weekly. As I’ve written about before and consistently hear during discussions with RPO providers, growth in this space is about scalability to meet demand while lowering fixed costs of dedicated internal resources when volumes are low, while, of course, simultaneously improving quality of hire.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, MPHRO is facing significant challenges due to a range of factors – especially risk aversion, which in turn is driving more point solution deals – but it is by no means dead. If I were an MPHRO provider, I would continue to hold steady as MPHRO contracts are being awarded, albeit smaller in scope than in the boom years of mega deals.
As for expected HRO growth by geography in 2011, on our 1 to 5 scale, with 1 being lowest and 5 being highest, we see:
U.S.: 4.6
Asia Pacific (overall): 4.3
U.K.: 4.1
Europe: (overall) 4.0
Central and Latin America (overall): 3.9
I believe all these indicators point to a move out of the mucky waters HRO has been slogging through for the past eight quarters. Further, I believe the U.S. and other regions will continue their outsourcing trend as companies try and continue to grow their strategic businesses, while offsetting costs associated with non-core areas (and companies’ views of what IS core are changing quite substantially.) Finally, I believe we will continue to see more multi-country and multi-continent point solution HRO deals as companies look to standardize those processes and implement best practices provided by a single, best-of-breed vendor.
In confirmation of NelsonHall’s past several quarterly HRO Confidence Indexes, this season’s earnings reports demonstrate that RPO is continuing to make a nice comeback compared to a year ago. For example, SeatonCorp’s PeopleScout RPO business reported 88 percent year on year revenue growth, with its best quarter ever (11 new contracts), Manpower total company achieved 19 percent growth and 24 percent in constant currency, and Hays total company reported 21 percent growth in net fees and 18 percent in constant currency.
From this representative sampling of RPO providers’ reported quarterly earnings, not too shoddy from the doldrums of a year ago. And the additional good news is that this growth is global. Looking at different world regions:
In the U.S.
90 percent of PeopleScout’s revenue came from North America, including RPO contracts with United Road and Chicago Career Tech. And Manpower grew its revenues by 84 percent in the U.S., in part due to an RPO contract with AIR-serv.
In Asia Pacific
Manpower increased its revenues in this region by 30 percent, led by Australia with 80 percent growth, and Hays increased net fees by 59 percent, with Australia and New Zealand permanent placement net fee growth up 60 percent, and Asia up 76 percent.
In Continental Europe
Hays and Manpower both experienced strong growth in several countries, including Germany, as Continental Europe’s economy has started to demonstrate signs of recovery.
In The Americas (outside the U.S.)
Manpower achieved growth of 31 percent in Mexico and 33 percent in Argentina, and Hays grew revenue by 35 percent in Brazil.
It’s important to note here that this increased hiring is not just patchwork quilting to plug short-term gaps. For example, Manpower reported that permanent recruitment was up across all regions, and Hays’ growth by segment was 34 percent permanent and 12 percent temporary.
So why the increase in hiring and use of RPO? Buy-side companies around the world are again acknowledging that it is not enough to improve earnings results by cost cutting, but rather that they must grow top line revenue and increase sales. As a result, they are beginning to reinvest in and grow their businesses, and thus are again facing the build versus buy dilemma when it comes to the recruiting process. But having lived through two drastic economic downturns in just this decade alone, many companies are recognizing the value of leveraging the expertise, scale and technological capabilities of third-party recruiting organizations, rather than rebuilding their internal recruiting departments only to potentially need to downsize them again someday.
NelsonHall is initiating its third global RPO study of leading providers next month. When the results are in, I’ll share deep dive insights on how recruitment services are evolving and what lies ahead.
The HRO community deserves a break, and the latest NelsonHall HR Outsourcing Confidence Index is here to deliver with lots of good news. Strike up the band and let’s have a virtual HRO parade!
To gauge HRO confidence, we use a scale in which 100 equals no change and 200 means all participants are highly confident. Compared to the dearth of optimism at 115 in Q2 2009, the 3Q 2010 HRO Confidence Index is at a high of 168. HRO vendors stating they are much more confident in their HR outsourcing business increased from a dismal 10 percent to a buoyant 41 percent.
We have been reporting for some time that pipelines are filling and looking better, and that continues. And yet, providers’ financial results have not yet shown a logjam break in frozen decision-making and willingness to commit in many HRO service lines.
On the other hand, this quarter we finally see an upswing in contract value growth. In fact, we have a triple play of good news underway! HRO service providers are reporting increases in:
New contract activity
Scope expansion with existing clients
Volume in existing contracts
New contract activity is now outpacing increasing scope with existing clients. New deals signed, given the lag time before revenues flow, will take a while to show up in results. Volumes beginning to pick-up with existing clients will show up sooner in results, especially if vendors can gear up to increasing activity levels quickly and efficiently.
RPO and payroll continue to lead the parade to revenue growth recovery, with multi-process HRO also improving. While learning has been slow, its current 3.5 ranking in NelsonHall’s 3Q 2010 HRO Confidence Index indicates a much brighter outlook as compared to its score of 2.8 in Q4 2009.(Note that we use a scale of 1 – 5, with 5 being a strong increase.)
Benefits administration outsourcing revenue growth expectations have been stable for several quarters around 3.5, but the outlook for pipeline growth is lower for benefits administration outsourcing than other HRO areas. Expected increases in health and welfare consulting should lead longer term to opportunities, but vendors are not seeing it yet. There may be short term distraction caused by the spate of mergers and alliances this year. ADP recently reported the successful acquisition of Workscape, now an ADP company, and Aon announced the leadership slate for the soon to be Aon Hewitt team.
Global delivery remains a factor in HRO growth in two ways. First, multi-country contracts, at 34 percent of deals, continue as organizations seek to standardize payroll and other HR processes. Also, acceptance of multi-shoring HRO continues. Onshore HRO delivery is still in the lead at 71 percent, but nearshore and offshore delivery are now 29 percent of HRO contract values.
People have parades for many reasons including celebration, commemoration and optimism. Our virtual parade is for optimism with a tad of celebration thrown in. Let’s save the full celebration parade for when the earnings results match the current high level of optimism. Hmm, when and where do you think we should have a real HRO community parade?
Although we’ve indicated that our most recent HR Outsourcing Confidence Index found benefits administration lagging behind other HR services in terms of revenue and pipeline growth, it’s important to put that into proper context:
• On the NelsonHall HRO Confidence Index scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being “strong increase” and 3 being “unchanged,” benefits admin came in at 3.6 relative HRO growth, right behind learning (3.7), and multi-process and payroll (both at 3.8)
• Benefits admin outsourcing contracts are indeed being won in 2010
For example, Mercer announced today that it added 10 new benefits admin clients – a mix of defined contribution, health and benefits, and total benefits/total retirement outsourcing – to its portfolio in 1H10. The new deals include leading brands such as CBS Corporation, Primerica and Global Equity Capital, LLC. In total per these new agreements, Mercer is now servicing nearly 190,000 additional benefits admin participants.
Additional benefits wins announced in 2010 include:
• Xafinity, for pension administration, by BAE and Loganair
• Workscape, for both its Outsourced Benefits Administration (OBA) web-based benefits administration service and for employee call center support, by Global Imaging Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of Xerox
• Workscape, for its OBA solution, by kgb, a multi-country directory assistance and information services company
• Convergys, a contract renewal for COBRA, leave of absence and annual enrollment services, by Office Depot
And benefits is not just being awarded as a standalone service. Rather, it continues to be provided along with multi-process HRO services. For example, Ceridian earlier this year was awarded a contract by Fifth Third Processing Solutions which included payroll, health and welfare administration, HR compliance, time and attendance, leave administration and learning and recruiting technology. And Hewitt and International Paper entered into a five-year contract renewal deal which covers payroll, workforce administration, health and welfare administration, recruiting support activities, SAP application support and help desk services, call center and HR manager support activities, learning administration and flex staffing management services.
As clients continue to seek reduced costs, ensure compliance with health care reform, increase employee satisfaction, better leverage technology, and improve delivery of services to employees – including self-service capabilities – I believe we will see continued growth in benefits admin outsourcing. NelsonHall is currently conducting a Benefits Administation Market Study. When it’s complete we’ll take a deeper-dive look at just how much it’s growing, and in which specific areas.
Gary Bragar, Senior HR Outsourcing Analyst, NelsonHall
HRO Insights 
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