HRO Will Drive Ahead in 2013

Linda Merritt, HRO Research Analyst, NelsonHall

With more organizations making the decision to use HR business process outsourcing services, even in the face of a still uncertain economic environment, the overall confidence of HR outsourcing suppliers in the market over the next 12-months is at its highest level in six quarters according to the latest NelsonHall HRO Confidence Index (HROCI).The HRO vendor confidence level is up 6% year-over-year reaching 155.5, where 100 represents unchanged confidence and higher scores indicate increased confidence.

Drivers Outweigh Inhibitors

The impact of the wider economy is strengthening the drivers for HR outsourcing which appear to be outweighing its impact on the associated inhibitors such as unrealistic pricing expectations and frozen decision-making. Currently, 89% of HR outsourcing suppliers believe that a net up-turn in HRO decision-making is taking place, with just 7% of suppliers perceiving that a net down-turn in HRO decision-making is taking place.

The top principal drivers for HR outsourcing include:

• Increased cost reduction
• Greater process consistency across business units and geographies
• Organizations looking for an increased transformational emphasis.

New private sector HRO deals typically remain limited in initial size, and significant growth opportunities continue to come from existing clients in the form of added scale or scope. In line with the “increased focus on cost reduction driven by the worsening economic climate,” organizations are finally showing an increased interest in evaluating outsourcing opportunities previously rejected.

Transformation Beyond Cost Arbitrage

The HROCI supports our 2013 trends with “a clear ‘transformation’ agenda” and a focus on value. Clients are looking to vendors to help them:

• Deliver a more empowered employee experience and access to learning using technology to administer, deliver, and share learning
• Manage business outcomes by driving higher employee engagement including a better end-user experience and continual “future-thinking”
• Achieve solid productivity and accelerate time to competency.

2013 Outlook

HRO vendor expectations for 2013 look best for payroll, then MPHRO which looks solid, followed by RPO, benefits administration, and then learning services. Multi-country deals for payroll and RPO will again be common with the average number of included countries around 20.  Of little surprise is that expectations for the government sector have slightly worsened, particularly for defense and state & local government.

Have You Listened

Another NelsonHall product of interest is the BPO Index which is supported by a quarterly conference call open to all who register.

According to the January Index, total BPO contract value was down significantly for 2012, especially in North America and Europe. The global economy and the U.S. fiscal cliff added to business growth uncertainty, which drove down industry-specific BPO the most.

At the same time, back-office BPO, which includes HRO, was up 25%, and HRO was up significantly year-over-year.

If you can lower total cost, improve performance, and increase business value, you can get an HRO deal!

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HRO Carrying On Despite Slow, Decelerating Economy

Amy L. Gurchensky, HRO Research Analyst, NelsonHall

For those of you who are not aware, NelsonHall assesses the confidence in the HRO market on a quarterly basis. The report involves surveying HRO suppliers from all disciplines to get a pulse on the market.

 From time to time, my colleagues and I will blog about these results. I thought I would take a step back and re-examine HRO supplier confidence levels since the report began.

 As the name suggests, the supplier confidence level measures how confident HRO suppliers are in the future market with a level of 100 representing no change in confidence.

Since the report began, the index has constantly shown a healthy level, despite some fluctuations in between. The following chart graphs HRO service provider confidence levels since its inception.

HRO Supplier Confidence Chart

2011 shows a major turning point in HRO vendor optimism, revealing a downward trend line that coincides with the Employment Situation report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There is no need to panic though. It appears that supplier expectations are now more accurately aligned to pipeline activity, which showed a slight weakening in Q1 2012. Again, the most important thing to remember is that the indices are still at a healthy level.

Despite the headwinds from the economic recovery, business for HRO has carried on as evidenced in the following contract activity:

• ADP: awarded a multi-country payroll contract by HP covering ~130,000 employees in 40 countries across Asia Pacific (excluding India), Europe, and the Americas (excluding the U.S.)
• Fidelity: awarded a DC administration contract by the University of Washington for ~31,000 employees; it is now the sole recordkeeping provider for the university
• Talent2: awarded a three year RPO contract by Bankwest in Australia providing full RPO services from job requisition through onboarding including employment branding, establishing an innovation program for sourcing, and more
• IBM: awarded a learning services contract by a government entity in South Africa including content development and delivery of learning
• Aon Hewitt: renews and expands its multi-process HR outsourcing contract with BMO Financial Group for payroll, workforce administration, H&W administration, recruitment services, and compensation administration covering 46,000 employees in the U.S. and Canada for eight years.

There will likely be continued challenges from clients such as stalled decision-making or demands for lower pricing, and some service lines will fare better than others in this slow economy that is decelerating.

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Fast or Slow for HRO?

The economic signals for the second half of 2011 remain mixed. Looking at the macro markets combined with global debt situations and unemployment rates, it looks like we are on the edge again. The long struggle to reaching agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling rattled nerves around the world.

Alternately, if we look at the NelsonHall HRO Confidence Index for Q2 2011, we see that service provider’s confidence level is 168, near the all time high of 170. Supplier expectations for 2011 for most industry sectors have improved with banking remaining the strongest followed by high-tech and telecoms, with the state and local government sector also up. Expectations are a bit lower for automotive, professional services, and transportation. Geographic growth expectations continue to be positive in emerging markets and have strengthened in the mature markets like the U.S. and some areas of Europe.

HRO vendors see what is happening in the larger economy, they know there is a chance of a double-dip recession or at least several more sideways quarters. At the same time, strength in new sales and expanded scope with existing clients along with still strong pipelines provides them with a more optimistic view. Let’s hope they are right!

ADP echoed this divergent view on its FY 2011 earnings call. It is well aware of the current economic conditions, including a still possible downgrade in the U.S. credit rating. ADP’s FY2012 forecast calls for continued growth based on its strong performance in FY2011, with Employer Services (ES) up 8% to $6.9bn, and a better-than-ever pipeline. It is also benefiting from recent acquisitions and new service innovations that have broadened and refreshed its service lines, especially adding more beyond payroll options in Europe. While payroll continues to be the largest service line for ADP at 66% of ES revenues, 33% is now from beyond payroll services including full HR BPO. In the pipeline, it is now an almost even split: 52% payroll, 48% beyond payroll.

As seen during the recession, HRO can be hit hard and fast in a full-fledged downturn. So, how can a HRO provider like ADP defy the larger economic outlook now? ADP was willing to take a small hit to operating margins to hire and train several hundred sales and service people ahead of the upturn. It was able to affordably acquire added capabilities to round out service lines and invest in new services that have been successful right out of the box, including Workforce Now and Run, which currently has over 120k clients in the small market on its cloud platform using self-service and Smartphone access. At the same time, ADP retains focus on client satisfaction and retention to stabilize recurring revenues.

In a recovery, even a weak one like we are experiencing, a well-prepared HRO vendor can beat the odds. Is your HRO provider one that is beating the odds?

Linda Merritt, Research Analyst, HRO, NelsonHall

Earnings Reports Point to Global RPO Growth

In confirmation of NelsonHall’s past several quarterly HRO Confidence Indexes, this season’s earnings reports demonstrate that RPO is continuing to make a nice comeback compared to a year ago. For example, SeatonCorp’s PeopleScout RPO business reported 88 percent year on year revenue growth, with its best quarter ever (11 new contracts), Manpower total company achieved 19 percent growth and 24 percent in constant currency, and Hays total company reported 21 percent growth in net fees and 18 percent in constant currency.

From this representative sampling of RPO providers’ reported quarterly earnings, not too shoddy from the doldrums of a year ago. And the additional good news is that this growth is global. Looking at different world regions:

In the U.S.

90 percent of PeopleScout’s revenue came from North America, including RPO contracts with United Road and Chicago Career Tech. And Manpower grew its revenues by 84 percent in the U.S., in part due to an RPO contract with AIR-serv.

In Asia Pacific

Manpower increased its revenues in this region by 30 percent, led by Australia with 80 percent growth, and Hays increased net fees by 59 percent, with Australia and New Zealand permanent placement net fee growth up 60 percent, and Asia up 76 percent.

In Continental Europe

Hays and Manpower both experienced strong growth in several countries, including Germany, as Continental Europe’s economy has started to demonstrate signs of recovery.

In The Americas (outside the U.S.)

Manpower achieved growth of 31 percent in Mexico and 33 percent in Argentina, and Hays grew revenue by 35 percent in Brazil.

It’s important to note here that this increased hiring is not just patchwork quilting to plug short-term gaps. For example, Manpower reported that permanent recruitment was up across all regions, and Hays’ growth by segment was 34 percent permanent and 12 percent temporary.

So why the increase in hiring and use of RPO? Buy-side companies around the world are again acknowledging that it is not enough to improve earnings results by cost cutting, but rather that they must grow top line revenue and increase sales. As a result, they are beginning to reinvest in and grow their businesses, and thus are again facing the build versus buy dilemma when it comes to the recruiting process. But having lived through two drastic economic downturns in just this decade alone, many companies are recognizing the value of leveraging the expertise, scale and technological capabilities of third-party recruiting organizations, rather than rebuilding their internal recruiting departments only to potentially need to downsize them again someday. 

NelsonHall is initiating its third global RPO study of leading providers next month. When the results are in, I’ll share deep dive insights on how recruitment services are evolving and what lies ahead.

Gary Bragar, Lead HRO Analyst, NelsonHall

Bang the HRO Drum Slowly

In my blog last week, Don’t Rain on my HRO Parade, it was fun accentuating the positive signs of health returning to the HRO market. This week I’m taking another look at the latest NelsonHall HR Outsourcing Confidence Index, this time with a moderating eye.  

Total contract values are starting to rise as scope slightly increases, but remain far below historic levels. HRO contracts are still smaller in scale and scope, and there are fewer $100,000+ deals. Further, more deals are occurring in the mid-market, and platform HRO is making inroads, both of which will also lower the average total contract value. All these factors look to become part of the new normal, at least for the foreseeable future.

While the grand plan for multinationals may still be to go global, deal patterns indicate organizations are starting with a more regional approach with fewer countries in the initial roll out. Fewer service lines are also now typical, with payroll and basic HR administrative processes remaining strong as the entry point for companies looking to standardize processes across the enterprise.

 This continues to make it look like the era of multi-process HRO is over. And yet, part of what has traditionally buoyed HRO service providers is follow-on contract expansions of scale and scope, including new services. That approach will only grow more important, putting greater emphasis than ever on making sure the initial client experience is as smooth and positive as possible to build the base for attracting more share of the HRO wallet. With buyers demonstrating willingness to go with multiple vendors and multiple stand-alone services, the role and value proposition of a primary vendor needs to be refocused and honed to meet today’s reality.

Frozen decision-making is finally thawing, albeit very slowly. Service providers report that about 20 percent of buy-side organizations remain iced up on sourcing decisions, down only three percent from the previous quarter. Other inhibitors are reducing in impact, but do remember that given continued economic uncertainty, getting senior management’s attention on making a decision for a major change and financial commitment like HRO will still be difficult.

Expect buyers to continue wanting HRO solutions that do not require large upfront investments and provide robust technology at a transparent price. HRO vendors are increasingly emphasizing the business value in their propositions, which is important to build a bridge for the future. At the same time, buyers are increasingly looking for proof points of real business results before they are willing to commit to crossing the bridge with a service provider. 

The news is moderately good for HRO, but bang the heralding drum a bit slowly, as the celebration parade is not here yet.

Linda Merritt, Research Director, HRO, NelsonHall